Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Fool's Rally? Maybe

Market update:

Market's are up strongly in midday trading. A market bottom? Normally I'd expect a fool's rally, but yesterday, there seemed to be a flood of bad news, a sense of foreboding, and although I didn't post my thoughts here, there did seem to be a smell of a market bottom.

I'm still doubtful. The rally today is being led by financials. The problems in banking and insurance are not yet over.

Later update, 4 pm PT: Today's action saw relatively weak rallies in consumer goods, healthcare, some tech sectors, Asia and large-cap growth--all areas where I would expect market leadership to come from. Commodities made little headyway as well, with materials being an exception (but not by much). Bottom line: Doesn't look like a rally yet.

John Authers of the FT captures the mood today, writing about the lack of confidence yesterday. (sub required)

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