Sunday, February 24, 2008

Is it a secular bear market?

Are we in a secular bear market?

See my story in InvestmentNews on this topic. I think a convincing case can be made for a choppy, directionless market for some years to come.

FYI, a couple of books published several years ago asking this same question are worth a read, or reread. One source in my story, Ed Easterling, wrote “Unexpected Returns—Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles” in 2004. A more approachable book, I think , and one Mr. Easterling contributed to as well is by John Mauldin, called “Bull's Eye Investing—Targeting real returns in a smoke and mirrors market.” (2004). Both these gentlemen are involved in the hedge fund industry.

The strong markets we've seen since 2004 only strengthen the case for a secular bear.