Saturday, January 03, 2009

Are commodities still in a bull market?

In a July post, I disagreed that commodities were in a bubble.

Well ... I was wrong about that, at least through the rest of the year.

As I write this on Jan. 1, 2009, oil and material ETFs are breaking out of bases and showing some short-term relative strength. I still feel we might be in a longer term bull market in commodities, which has been interrupted savagely by the financial crisis and heavy selling of any liquid asset by speculators.

I could, of course, be wrong again. But I've been adding to some materials and energy stock ETFs.

Jan 7, 2008 update: Today, I got back into DBA, the agricultural commodity ETF. (Blogger note: exchange traded notes like DBA, unlike ETFs that hold stocks, are unsecured obligations of the issuer. They are contracts so they have credit risk, like an individual stock, unrelated to moves in, say, commodities. If the issuer fails, you might lose all your money. So don't overdue it.)