Monday, December 01, 2008

Consumer goods, health care: Will they lead the rally?

The consumer staples and health care sectors (VDC, IYK, VHT) been holding up relatively well. But I'm not sure this is an indication that these defensive areas will lead the next rally. The good relative strength could simply be a result of the lower volatility of stocks in these sectors. In a truly crappy market, safety ends up looking good.

On the other hand, respected strategist Rich Bernstein of Merrill Lynch, has been saying consumer staples and health care are the places to be.

NBER says recession started Dec. '07

The official (?) keeper of the recession tally, the National Bureau of Economic Research, says the recession started last year in December.

The NBER says the latest economic expansion began in November 2001.